Wednesday 9 March 2011

Tci Finance

This stock has become an Operators Shuttlecock

Tci finance is NBFC which every year is a 2-3 bagger between its 52 week high and 52 week lows in 2005 it was a 10 bagger 1 to 10 in 2000 an 8 bagger SO IT IS OPERATED REGULARILY

The year highs and lows are as follows (nse) source
Year Ending High (Rs.) Low (Rs.)
2011 129.80 44.15
2010 53.20 20.25
2009 30.50 11.55
2008 67.40 8.00
2007 53.55 17.30
2006 41.00 15.65
2005 34.50 6.60
2004 10.05 1.85
2003 6.50 2.60
2000 25.75 3.35

Source http://broking.rbs.in/company_Fundamental.asp?CompanyCode=14060034
Its usp is supposed to be its stake holding in the promoter group companies

Heres info DIRECTLY FORM THE 2010 ANNUAL REPORT








So tci finance holds amrit jal ventures

Now a reputed website VCC Circle has in an article
Gati Promoter May Shed 26% In Hydel Power Biz; To Raise Rs 250Cr said this
Amrit Jal Ventures, the holding company of Hyderabad-based Gati Group's hydel power projects, is looking to divest around 26% stake for raising Rs 200-250 crore. The company is in talks with undisclosed institutional investors, possibly infrastructure private equity funds, who have started due diligence ahead of a potential transaction, said an official close to the company.
The group, with the listed cargo and logistics company Gati Ltd as its flagship, has been diversifying its interests with hydro power identified as a growth area within infrastructure play.
Amrit Jal is implementing three hydel projects in Sikkim with combined output of 250 MW. The holding company is executing the three projects through separate special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and the fund raising will be ploughed into these projects at various stages of implemention. This includes the 99MW project at Chuzachen, 71MW Sadar Mandger project at Ravangla and 51 MW Bhasmey project at Rangpo in Sikkim.

http://www.vccircle.com/500/news/gati-promoter-may-shed-26-in-hydel-power-biz-to-raise-rs-250cr

Now here is the interesting part amrit jal is divesting 26 per cent to RAISE MONEY FOR AMRUT JALS EXPANSION NOT GIVE TCI FINANCE SHAREHOLDERS MONEY

When u divest stake it usually is by issuing fresh equity so there will be equity dilution

Anyway assuming the Aggarwals sell 26 percent stake to whoever AND THEY SELL TCIs remaining 23 that’s a dangerous 49 percent with non promoters IN AN UN LISTED COMPANY

Why will the Aggarwals do that ? why leave 49 percent of an unlisted potential multibagger with non promoters EVEN BEFORE AN IPO

As for the stake in Gati and TCI industries (both group companies ) the shareholding is part of promter stake and its extremely unlikely that TCI will ever actually sell and realize cash from these 2 holdings

For the record as of today the gati and tci industries stake combined is 81 crores

ITAG business solutions had negative reserves as of 2010 so that has no current value

The stock has zoomed from 20 to 120 often in unbroken upper circuits then came back to 61 in unbroken lower circuits then went up again to 90 mostly in upper circuits
operators are mindlessly ramping it up and down and small retail investors are getting sucked in into a stock without any thought

Once the operators are done with this this should resume its comatose state again

6 comments:

ninad said...
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ninad said...
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ninad said...
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rk said...

where did you get the 38 percent ? till march 2010 it was 23.4 if there was an increase it should have been in the official announcements in the bse website if u find such an announcement pls post so i can correct myself

ninad the point is even if the aggarwals retain 74 percent till ipo what then

who sells stake at ipo time

tci finance or the aggarwals in their personal capacity ?

cause both cant do it or the aggarwals end up as a minority

point is they most probably will sell their own personal stake at ipo time rather then that of a group company

then tci finance will become a promoter company and a stake sale will be very remote possibility

also dont forget all 3 current projects are spvs

so when to go for ipo in amrit jal wont be decided entirely by the aggarwals

as for itag its small and until it achives something as a standalone component it can be ignored valuation wise

by divestment i meant divestment in amrit jal not tci

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